

War Can Be Paused, Not Ended
The war has reached a point where it can be paused, but not completely ended. In the coming months—or even over a few years—this pause may continue. I am not a military expert, but as a student of politics, in my observation, the U.S. is just buying time to prepare a new war strategy. The strategy around a 48-hour withdrawal deadline also shows a shift, especially after Iran announced its response against U.S. assets in the Middle East. Therefore, America may change its approach temporarily, but not its ultimate objective.
Rapid Escalation and Strategic Pause
As the war has escalated very quickly, it may slow down for some time, allowing financial and oil markets to stabilize. Iran has been able to raise fuel prices in the international market by controlling the Strait of Hormuz and using strategies to escalate the conflict. At the same time, America is not able to get the support of its allies as expected, and in its new strategy, it needs ground forces—hence the need to buy time. This conflict is no longer just a regional war; it has become a struggle between global powers to challenge American supremacy and potentially emerge as the next world superpower.
Israel, China, and Russia Factor
I am not convinced that Israel will end the war anytime soon. Even if America works to pause the conflict in the background, China’s influence could rise, while American dominance is indirectly challenged. Russia has openly shown support for Iran, possibly alongside China. Iran’s recent responses, including targeting Israel’s sensitive sites, have made the situation even more dangerous.
Mediation and Iran’s Demands
Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are playing mediating roles between Iran and the U.S., with Pakistan’s role being particularly significant. However, Iran wants guarantees, raising the critical question: who can provide them? Iran’s six-point agenda to stop the war demands guarantees against future attacks, U.S. base withdrawals, compensation for damages, an end to all hostilities, a new legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz, and prosecution of hostile media figures.
Outcome and Israel’s Acceptance
If the war ends at this stage, it could strengthen Iran’s position in the Middle East, especially as Iran has become stronger over just three weeks of conflict. The question is, will Israel accept this outcome?
Nuclear Issue and Sovereignty Question
Another major issue is U.S. demands regarding Iran’s nuclear program, including stopping uranium enrichment entirely—even for civilian purposes—and reopening the Strait of Hormuz under “joint control” with the U.S. If Iran were forced to hand over its enriched uranium, it would compromise its sovereignty. Considering the personal losses of Iran’s new supreme leader, including the death of his father and other family members, would he really compromise with America in such a case? What would Iran’s role in the region be? Is such a decision even possible, and could Iran make it independently?
Indirect but Powerful Allied Support
Allied support for Iran has been indirect but very powerful. Even inside the region, Tehran has a network through aligned groups across the Middle East that serve its strategic interests, and this cannot be ignored. This network allows Iran to exert pressure without full-scale direct intervention. Meanwhile, China and Russia are using this conflict to subtly expand their influence at the global level and challenge U.S. dominance, without becoming directly involved in combat.
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