

The war has reached a point where it may be paused for an extended or uncertain period, but it is unlikely to end completely. While there may be short breaks or periods of calm, the conflict is expected to continue for an unspecified period, and possibly even for years.I am not a military expert, but as a student of politics, in my observation, the U.S. is just buying time to prepare
a new war strategy. The strategy around a 48-hour withdrawal deadline also shows
a shift, especially after Iran announced its response against U.S. assets in the
Middle East.As the war accelerated, following the 48-hour warning described as a ‘Trump trap,’ it became clear that U.S. supply lines were not fully prepared to handle the fast-paced conflict, forcing adjustments in strategy. Despite these challenges, the U.S. continues to pursue its ultimate objectives.”Therefore, America may change its approach temporarily, but not its
ultimate objective. If the United States really wanted to end the war, why are thousands of U.S. Marines and 82nd Airborne units being sent to the Middle East? And why is the Pentagon requesting nearly $200 billion for a conflict that’s supposedly coming to a close?
Rapid Escalation and Strategic Pause As the war has
escalated very quickly, it may slow down for some time, allowing financial and
oil markets to stabilize. Iran has been able to raise fuel prices in the
international market by controlling the Strait of Hormuz and using strategies to
escalate the conflict. At the same time, America is not able to get the support
of its allies as expected, and in its new strategy, it needs ground forces—hence
the need to buy time. This conflict is no longer just a regional war; it has
become a struggle between global powers to challenge American supremacy and
potentially emerge as the next world superpower.
Israel, China, and Russia
Factor In my view, Israel may not bring the war to a complete end at this stage. Even if America works to pause the conflict in the background, China’s influence could
rise, while American dominance is indirectly challenged. Russia has openly shown
support for Iran, possibly alongside China. Iran’s recent responses, including
targeting Israel’s sensitive sites, have made the situation even more dangerous.
Mediation and Iran’s Demands Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are playing mediating
roles between Iran and the U.S., with Pakistan’s role being particularly
significant. However, Iran wants guarantees, raising the critical question: who can provide them? Iran’s six-point agenda to stop the war demands guarantees
against future attacks, U.S. base withdrawals, compensation for damages, End to Regional Conflicts, a new legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz, and
prosecution of hostile media figures.
Iran now faces a deep trust deficit, as the United States attacked during ongoing negotiations, killing its Supreme Leader and key military commanders.
Can trust be rebuilt after this?
Outcome and Israel’s Acceptance If the war
ends at this stage, it could strengthen Iran’s position in the Middle East,
especially as Iran has become stronger over just three weeks of conflict. The
question is, will Israel accept this outcome? Nuclear Issue and Sovereignty
Question Another major issue is U.S. demands regarding Iran’s nuclear program,
including stopping uranium enrichment entirely—even for civilian purposes—and
reopening the Strait of Hormuz under “joint control” with the U.S. If Iran were
forced to hand over its enriched uranium, it would compromise its sovereignty.
Considering the personal losses of Iran’s new supreme leader, including the
death of his father and other family members, would he really compromise with
America in such a case? What would Iran’s role in the region be? Is such a
decision even possible, and could Iran make it independently? Indirect but
Powerful Allied Support Allied support for Iran has been indirect but very
powerful. Even inside the region, Tehran has a network through aligned groups
across the Middle East that serve its strategic interests, and this cannot be
ignored. This network allows Iran to exert pressure without full-scale direct
intervention. Meanwhile, China and Russia are using this conflict to subtly
expand their influence at the global level and challenge U.S. dominance, without
becoming directly involved in combat.
While temporary pauses in the war are possible, a complete resolution seems unlikely in the near term. The conflict has now entered a critical phase in the contest for global supremacy, where established powers are striving to maintain control, and emerging powers are seeking to assert themselves.
“Don’t fall for speeches—follow the moves.”
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#MiddleEastCrisis #Geopolitics #WarAnalysis #StraitOfHormuz #OilPrices
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